26 Outubro 2008

Na sequência do meu post sobre a necessidade de informação antes de voltarmos, no café, à discussão do tema do momento 'o orçamento de estado e as medidas para ultrapassar a crise económica', fui à procura de quais seriam as medidas mais adequadas, na opinião de dois grandes economistas que acompanharam o evoluir da crise no 'olho do furacão'.

Escolhi Paul Krugman (creio que dispensa apresentações) e Nouriel Roubini.

Vejamos que caminho cada um deles aponta:

Investimento do Estado, deficit publico e apoio às autarquias

- Paul Krugman : "It’s politically fashionable to rant against government spending and demand fiscal responsibility. But right now, increased government spending is just what the doctor ordered, and concerns about the budget deficit should be put on hold.". "And this is also a good time to engage in some serious infrastructure spending, which the country badly needs in any case.". "It can provide emergency aid to state and local governments, so that they aren’t forced into steep spending cuts that both degrade public services and destroy jobs."

- Nouriel Roubini : "a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and local government;"

Apoio às pessoas e às familias

- Paul Krugman : "It can provide extended benefits to the unemployed, which will both help distressed families cope and put money in the hands of people likely to spend it.". "It can buy up mortgages (but not at face value, as John McCain has proposed) and restructure the terms to help families stay in their homes."

- Nouriel Roudini : "a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures"

Apoio à economia

- Paul Krugman : "He can and should cut interest rates even more"

- Nouriel Roubini : "another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis points on average globally;"

Agora há que comparar com as medidas preconizadas no OE 2009 e as outras que entretanto são, e serão, apontadas.

Ficamos com uma visão mais clara, nesta comparação, de qual o caminho que se deve, ou vai, seguir.

 

 

 

 

 

 

publicado por RPF às 06:58
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